DisMod II



Risk factor





Version 1.3

Ersatz screenshot, showing a histogram of the Gamma function output.


Ersatz was originally developed as a low-cost alternative to @Risk™ and Crystal Ball™. The Ersatz program has additional features included for users who are interested in health economic  evaluation modeling and/or microsimulation using Excel.

Ersatz makes more than 80 additional functions available in Excel, most of them producing randomly drawn numbers from specific distributions, but also output, control, statistical, and special functions to calculate such things as  health-adjusted discounted life years. The software comes with several example spreadsheets that will  give you an excellent idea of Ersatz’s power, versatility, and  simplicity of use.

The full version of Ersatz was formerly sold for a small fee. This software has now been made freely available.



Fast, compiled code (no VBA!).

Parametric and non-parametric bootstrapping

Conditional firing of Ersatz functions

Multinomial and Dirichlet distributions

Correlated random draws, including correlated Multinomial and Dirichlet distributions

Multiple options for sensitivity analysis

Four different optimization algorithms

Product Summary

Ersatz is a bootstrap add-in for Microsoft Excel for Windows. It allows the user to do uncertainty analysis (aka ‘risk analysis’, ‘Monte Carlo simulation’, ‘probabilistic sensitivity analysis’, ‘bootstrapping’), microsimulation, and probabilistic bias quantification in Excel.

Price: Free


User Guide
Function Overview
The User Guide and Function Overview documents are included in the full version.

Ersatz Installation Instructions
This document describes the steps required to install the full version of Ersatz.

Full version
This is the setup file that installs the full version of Ersatz.

This is the key generator required to produce a release code for the full version of Ersatz.

Guide for Apple Mac users
Ersatz is only compatible with Windows. Options on how to run the Ersatz software on a Mac are provided here.

Version history

Ersatz publications

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