DisMod II



Risk factor






Version 1.3

Major update: now also supporting 64-bit Excel

Ersatz screenshot, showing a histogram of the Gamma function output.


You think that @Risk™ and Crystal Ball™ are seriously overpriced for what they offer? Exactly my idea. So I wrote  my own, which I now make generally available as a low cost alternative.

Rather whimsically  called ‘Ersatz’, this software is a full strength alternative, with some extra features thrown in for those of you who are into health economic  evaluation modeling and/or microsimulation using Excel.

Ersatz makes more  than 80 additional functions available in Excel, most of them producing  randomly drawn numbers from specific distributions, but also output,  control, statistical, and special functions to calculate such things as  health-adjusted discounted life years.

Give the free trial  version a spin. It comes with several example spreadsheets that will  give you an excellent idea of Ersatz’s power, versatility, and  simplicity of use.

It’s a steal for just 100 Aus dollars!


Fast, compiled code (no VBA!).

Parametric and non-parametric bootstrapping

Conditional firing of Ersatz functions

Multinomial and Dirichlet distributions

Correlated random draws, including correlated Multinomial and Dirichlet distributions

Multiple options for sensitivity analysis

Four different optimization algorithms

Product Summary

Ersatz is a bootstrap add-in for Microsoft Excel for Windows. It allows to do  uncertainty analysis (aka ‘risk analysis’, ‘Monte Carlo simulation’,  ‘probabilistic sensitivity analysis’, ‘bootstrapping’), microsimulation, and probabilistic bias quantification in Excel.

Price: AUD 100



User Guide
Function Overview
The User Guide and Function Overview documents are included in the trial and full version downloads.

Trial version
The trial version lacks some output functions and you cannot save results, but is otherwise fully functional and not time-limited.

Full version
You can run the full version only after you have applied for and  received a serial number and release code. These will be supplied after  payment is received.

Version history

Ersatz publications

Workshop on Health Economic Evaluation

The School of Public Health,  University of Queensland, conducts an annual five-day workshop on Health Economic Evaluation, featuring Ersatz for uncertainty analysis.

For details download the workshop flyer

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